The Mystique of A-Shares Reemerges!
In the month of November, the overall trading volume in the market exceeded an impressive 15 trillion, yet for most investors, the sensation was far from optimistic. An examination of the broader market indices showcased a persistent state of fluctuation, with frequent declines outnumbering minor gains, and an undeniable drift downward in market momentum. At the sector level, while new investment hotspots emerged at a rapid pace, the speed of rotation made it challenging for sustained profits. In essence, navigating this market environment became increasingly arduous—where profit opportunities were scarce, losses proliferated effortlessly. Alarmingly, many investors not only failed to make gains but also experienced a reclamation of previous profits, leading some to express that their losses now exceed those during previous bear markets.
Despite the bleak outlook, the market remained rife with speculative hot spots, most notably in the realm of 'mystical' investment concepts. The A-shares market has a long-standing tradition of investing in zodiac-related stocks as the year draws to a close. Previous examples include "Bunny Baby" stocks in the Year of the Rabbit and "Saint Dragon" and "Tianlong" stocks during the Year of the Dragon, which witnessed rampant enthusiasm from speculators. With the Snake Year approaching, stocks related to 'snakes' surged collectively—companies such as Chuanfa Longmang (Python), Shifeng Culture (Eat Snake IP), BoShi Glasses (Cobra), and Huluwa (based on classic animation) saw their shares multiply in value, in some cases, skyrocketing several-fold.
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Moreover, companies with "Oriental" in their name captured investor attention as well, including Rich Sun Oriental, Hengxin Oriental, Oriental Precision Technology, Oriental Communication, and Da Dongfang. A number of these stocks posted impressive gains exceeding double their original value.
It is indeed curious—analyzing the fundamentals, one might find that these companies are in vastly unrelated sectors, yet they get lumped together merely due to speculative trends, reminiscent of the concept of 'mysticism'.
Interestingly, the A-share market is not alone in this peculiar behavior of speculative trading. Take, for example, the recent U.S. elections: During the campaigns of Biden and Harris, A-share companies like Chuanda Zhisheng and Hales exhibited noteworthy performances. These two firms operate in completely different domains—one supplies products for the aerial transportation sector, while the other specializes in cup and kettle manufacturing—yet they found themselves intertwined with the candidates solely due to phonetic similarities, resulting in sudden surges of stock prices.
This leads us to ponder: why does this bizarre phenomenon recur within the A-share market? The answer seems rooted in the unique structure of its investors.
Contrary to the U.S. stock market dominated by institutional investors, A-shares are overwhelmingly comprised of retail investors. A survey reported by Data Treasure and Tencent’s stocks shows that over 99% of the A-share investors are retail investors with comparatively limited funds for investment. This demographic tends to prioritize short-term gains, as evidenced by a staggering 88.79% of them seeking out quick returns, significantly outpacing those focused on mid- to long-term profits. Furthermore, almost half of these investors lack substantial investment experience.
Such statistics indicate that A-shares are the quintessential 'retail investor’s market', with inexperienced individuals making up a considerable portion. This reality fosters behaviors characterized by short-term speculation and a tendency to overlook in-depth fundamental analysis. Retail investors often exhibit a lack of long-term conviction in their investments, leading to a somewhat restless mindset throughout the market.
In this milieu, news and major events serve to whet a significant appetite for fleeting trading opportunities within the retail investor community. As positive news spreads and generates discussion among the masses, the prevailing mentality of “better to believe in its existence than to doubt it” emerges, which leads to a herd mentality focused on chasing trends—driving waves of speculative trading that sporadically elevate stock prices.
For instance, the recent speculative rush on 'snake stocks' around the year's end may have been understood by many as devoid of substantial rationale and investment merit. However, a segment of investors remains convinced, and as additional investors join the fray, the corresponding price escalation becomes inevitable. It cannot be denied that the current trend in speculation epitomizes the phrase: “the bold can become rich, while the timid face ruin.”
While this sort of mass psychology may yield short-lived profits, it is important to caution against participating in such volatile speculative games.
The rationale is straightforward. Regardless of the triggers for short-term speculative trading rooted in events or concepts, these actions ultimately reflect emotional and speculative trading behavior. Although they superficially seem to offer opportunities for substantial short-term gains, these strategies frequently neglect the fundamental principles of investing and the long-term growth trajectory of companies—thus hiding significant risks beneath the surface. Once the sound of the news fades or market sentiment shifts, the once-inflated stock prices of these speculative targets risk experiencing dramatic volatility, often resulting in disastrous outcomes. Investors lacking the expertise or discernment to navigate these market trends may find themselves caught in high-risk situations, ultimately facing substantial financial loss.
At their core, investments should be viewed as a marathon rather than a sprint. In contrast to short-term speculative adventures, sustainable long-term growth through compounding returns is far more valuable. To thrive in the market over the long term, investors must continually seek knowledge to enhance understanding and analytical abilities to identify stocks with a high probability of appreciation and comparatively low risk. Moreover, building a firm understanding of governmental policies, industry fundamentals, and corporate financial health is paramount, all while developing a trading framework that dismisses blind following of speculation or herd behavior. Only by adhering to these principles can investors embark on a successful journey of wealth accumulation.
In terms of suggested areas of focus for investment, I recommend attention to two primary threads:
First, the burgeoning field of new productive forces characterized by high technology. It is no exaggeration to say that over the past two years, new productive forces have captured significant policy attention as China transitions towards a more advanced economic landscape amid the backdrop of global geopolitical competition. Thus, prioritizing advances in technologies deemed vital (such as high-end semiconductors and industrial software), innovative sectors, and critical manufacturing (including humanoid robotics and quantum computing) should provide fertile ground for investor engagement.
Second, focus on the consumer market. As the market anticipates potential tariff increases—which may place pressure on exports—shifts in policy attention toward boosting domestic consumption are expected. With the year-end holiday season approaching, traditional retail is likely to see considerable activity, making it a worthy area for exploration.
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