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How Profitable is Selling Lithography Machines?

2024-10-11

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The world of semiconductor manufacturing has been dominated by industry giants like Samsung and TSMC, but when it comes to cutting-edge lithography machines, one name leaps to mind: ASML, a Dutch company recognized globally for its unparalleled expertise. With the ability to produce advanced extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines, ASML not only stands as a titan in this niche market but has also established a stronghold that competitors have yet to penetrate.

These EUV machines, which are crucial for producing high-performance chips, carry a staggering price tag of over 10 billion yuan (approximately $1.6 billion). The exclusivity of these machines is further intensified by the restrictions placed by the United States, aimed at thwarting ASML from selling these essential tools to Chinese chip manufacturers.

ASML’s impressive market capitalization of over $300 billion signifies its status as a powerhouse in the technology sector. Despite being a Dutch entity, it has successfully navigated to the American stock market, where its presence has only amplified its global influence.

Entering the U.S. capital markets in March 1995, ASML was not an immediate star; however, fast forward to today, and its value has surged to a staggering $303.9 billion, making it a formidable player, just trailing behind China's Moutai on the A-share market. In September of this year, ASML's stock price rocketed to an all-time high of $895, and its market capitalization soared to $367 billion, equivalent to over 23 trillion yuan, reflecting a significant investor confidence in its business model and growth prospects.

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The stock's upward trajectory began in 2020, when shares traded at a mere $300. Since then, it has more than doubled, driven largely by the global chip shortage exacerbated by various challenges such as climate issues and the COVID-19 pandemic. The demand for chips, particularly for electric vehicles, has surged, painting a bright future for semiconductor manufacturing, which necessitates state-of-the-art lithography machines — where ASML reigns supreme.

Capital investment gravitates towards the most promising avenues, and ASML's core competency in EUV technology is a reliable revenue source, putting it in the spotlight on the world stage.

Looking ahead, ASML anticipates significant growth in its revenue, projecting a doubling of its operational income within five years, as depicted in financial reports from 2020. The company recorded €13.978 billion in revenue with net profits of €3.554 billion, with nearly €8.384 billion earned in just the first half of 2021 alone. This achievement already accounted for 60% of its previous year's total revenue.

In light of these promising figures, ASML revised its revenue forecast, potentially hitting $30 billion by 2025, which would nearly double its revenue from 2020. This optimistic outlook aligns with its forecast that gross margins would elevate between 54-56%, further solidifying its profitability. In contrast, the gross coverage margins in Chinese tech companies, notably Huawei, only stand at 8.1%.

To illustrate this disparity: while ASML’s gross profit approached €6.8 billion against its revenue of €13.9 billion, Huawei's figures were starkly lower—891.3 billion yuan in revenue with only 72.5 billion yuan recognized as operating profit.

Boosting industry profit margins is as crucial as addressing the systemic vulnerabilities that pin down China's tech aspirations. If the nation were to host more companies akin to ASML, it could effectively tackle pressing challenges while also enhancing profit margins across various sectors. A significant question arises: Why can Western workers generally earn double with half the working hours compared to their Chinese counterparts? The answer lies largely in the higher profit margins for companies in developed countries, where investments yield higher returns.

Currently, many Chinese firms find themselves entrenched in middle-tier positions within the supply chain, primarily focused on assembly, with limited engagement in product development and branding. This landscape explains the relatively lower wage levels of employees within these companies, exacerbated by the fact that profitability often does not support higher compensation. Business owners are understandably reluctant to raise wages when profit margins are tight or when they bear the financial brunt of losses.

To remedy this systemic issue, China has long been steering towards phasing out outdated industries, particularly those that are low-end and energy-intensive. There is a concerted effort to prioritize high-end manufacturing, supported by favorable policies, in hopes of fostering homegrown enterprises that can rival global names like Apple and ASML.

The overarching sentiment in the manufacturing sector encapsulates a considerable ambition: to unlock the latent potential of innovation and expertise, thereby constructing an ecosystem where profitability is not a rarity but standard practice. Strengthening the technological capabilities of domestic enterprises could lead to a renaissance in the Chinese manufacturing landscape, yielding a future where high-tech enterprises flourish and contribute significantly to the national economy.

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